The recent events in Kazakhstan, their unexpected development and expansion, once again came to prove that large-scale processes of geopolitical transformation are taking place in our region, where the sovereignty and future of whole countries are on the scales. Armenia is at the crossroads of this new geopolitical project, where huge geostrategic and economic interests are at stake, and in which neo-Ottoman Turkey has an active role in reshaping the region. Armenia’s complete control over Artsakh was a key obstacle on the way to that program, and the Turkish alliance managed to eliminate that obstacle, at least for the time being. His next goal is transport communication over Armenia, and then the establishment of full control over Syunik and the whole territory of Armenia in the future.

In these conditions, the regular statements of the current government about the “age of peace” are at least puzzling, because war or peace is not our choice at all, but a reality conditioned by general regional developments, and a reality that does not depend on us. If the balance of power in the region is somehow upset again in favor of the Turkish alliance (as it happened in 2020), there is no doubt that it will find a new excuse to start a war against the weakened Armenian state and solve its still unfinished problems. So in these conditions, there are two realistic alternatives: either to surrender to the Turkish alliance from the beginning and fulfill all its conditions (which, however, is not a guarantee that new conditions will not be added constantly), or to try to take advantage of the pause to develop its own military. capabilities, to restore military-political power, and to increase its own role as a small but real factor of regional security.

We are initially in favor of the second option, and we sincerely believe that only the restoration, modernization and gradual expansion of our own military-political capabilities in the long run can ensure the security and sovereignty of our country, provided that we also use those capabilities wisely and do not become a toy in the hands of others. Therefore, in 2020. Immediately after the catastrophic defeat in the Artsakh war, we resumed work with a number of colleagues without hesitation to restore the lost defense capabilities of our army, as well as to learn lessons from the previous war, to radically modernize and transform them. Being only a private foundation with limited material resources, we can not aspire to replace the state in this matter, but by concentrating high-quality expertise and in constant dialogue with various defense agencies, we already have a clear idea of ​​the key strategic issues and are able to effectively support to our army to undertake real reforms.

While security and defense reform is a field of endless possibilities and requires enormous material resources, we must proceed from the current domestic political realities, material and personnel constraints, the actual strategy of hostile countries and real opportunities for cooperation with partner countries to realistically define our core priorities for the next few years.

Without claiming to be a comprehensive essay, let us try to outline below a number of key areas where we need radical defense reforms and where they can be implemented in the medium term.

A) Battlefield management.
In the last war, contrary to popular belief, we were defeated not only by “Bayraktar”, but also by the modern integrated capabilities of the battlefield management by the enemy. Satellite, aerial and radar reconnaissance, protected channels, overcrowded command post, real-time intelligence and clear command to combat units were all factors that enabled the enemy to conduct well-calculated combat operations and break through our defenses even where At first it seemed impossible. We simply do not have the luxury of fighting the enemy once again in the future with our eyes closed, and we must not only build such capabilities ourselves, but also use our technological advances to gain a tangible advantage over the enemy here, especially since it is realistically possible. , and in some issues it is already becoming a reality.

B) Frontline automation.
The protection of the borders of Armenia (including Artsakh) by traditional means is a very difficult task, as the length of the borders is very large compared to our territory. If we try to defend it by the same means, we will spend huge resources, keeping tens of thousands of soldiers in the trenches, but in case of a possible war we will repeat the same result. Our soldiers should be taken out of the trenches as much as possible and instead the problem of border protection should be solved by automated means. Today we have at our disposal many working technologies: deep surveillance optical devices, various radars, reconnaissance UAV, autonomous fire means. We can at least halve the number of troops on the immediate frontier, with existing ones in safe bunkers in front of control panels instead of trenches, or in the Rapid Reaction Force, which, if necessary, is in danger of a possible intrusion.

C) Establishment of mobile subdivisions.
Instead of a position, our main infantry forces must become mobile and high-tech. We can no longer prepare for the previous wars, instead we have to pass to the enemy territory, operatively searching the enemy territory, moving quickly in the mountains with light mobile means, solving various attack problems, making difficult detours, firing high-precision fire. Such units operate without exception in the armies of all the leading military powers and play an important role in combat operations. In the last war, the enemy also showed the effectiveness of such units, particularly during the occupation of Shushi, and now continues to expand their composition and develop capabilities. Therefore, in the future, our similar units must not only not yield, but also surpass the enemy in their training, dedication and efficiency. This is a difficult task, the training of such fighters requires a long process and serious resources, but it is possible with the right goal and the right distribution of forces.

D) Improving the accuracy of missiles and artillery.
Another decisive factor in the last war was the sharp increase in the accuracy of rocket-propelled grenade fire by the enemy. This was done by detecting vulnerable targets through aerial reconnaissance, obtaining their coordinates and accurately commanding the artillery, resulting in a 10-fold increase in accuracy (this is actually equivalent to using 10 times more artillery). During the past war, similar technology was used by the Armenian forces in some parts of the front, and where it was done, the enemy’s advantage was neutralized and it was not able to fulfill its combat tasks. At present, it is necessary not only to switch to the use of precision-guided technology, but also to increase the density of the use of its own missiles, to switch to local production of missiles and their launch sites. All this is already technically possible and only requires appropriate investments by the state.

E) Mass use of unmanned aerial vehicles.
During the last war, the use of fighter jets and helicopters by both the enemy and us was minimized, instead drones became widely used, unfortunately, mainly by the enemy. This has a simple explanation: UAV are relatively cheap and allow for mass use, they are often more expensive to break than the cost of the devices themselves, and the user does not suffer any human losses. According to various expert sources, the past war is by far the most widespread use of UAV in human history, and future wars will continue in that direction. It is no coincidence that after the Artsakh war, the interest in military UAV(particularly the Turkish Bayraktars) has sharply increased all over the world, many armies are urgently armed with them, and the leading countries continue to improve their UAV arsenal. Armenia has no right to lag behind here, especially since a number of Armenian companies have already mastered the production of small UAV, they have successful (albeit limited) experience in using them in the army. In the coming years, the task will be to move to the mass production and use of UAV for reconnaissance, attack and strike purposes, while integrating their capabilities and providing maximum autonomous fire wounding throughout the enemy’s territory.

 

F) Integrated air defense system.
The opposite of using UAV is protection against them. No matter how much Armenia develops its UAV capabilities, we must always take into account that the enemy is already ahead of us in this field, continues to develop and will use even more perfect and deadly technologies in future wars. Therefore, one must be prepared to neutralize the enemy’s capabilities, and this must be done by creating an integrated air defense system, where, in addition to a number of long-range and expensive means, a large number of relatively short-range but cheap and accurate assault means must be deployed. hundreds of units) capable of effectively fighting enemy UAV and saving the lives of our soldiers. This is a difficult task, as even the most advanced countries have not yet been able to develop cheap air defense equipment and instead use expensive self-propelled anti-aircraft missiles, which often cost more than damaged UAV. However, in this field, active developments are taking place all over the world, leading companies are testing non-traditional solutions – superpowers lasers, UAV radio pressure, high-frequency radio pulses, etc. We also have the opportunity to start that work from a new page in Armenia, including by cooperating with our traditional partner countries, which are currently solving similar problems.

E) Formation of an active reserve force.
Finally, we need to develop an active reserve force in order to effectively replenish the army in war conditions. During the term service it is necessary to select the best servicemen and offer them to sign contracts with the Ministry of Defense on a voluntary basis, being included in the active reserve for 10-15 years after the service. Twice a year, these individuals can participate in mobilizations, keep their combat knowledge and skills of working with sophisticated equipment fresh. The state must pay them extra and provide them with privileges, and during military operations, first of all, they will be drafted into the army. The rest of the reservists can be mobilized every three years and be in the second reserve, but the first pillar of the army should be the active reservist, who is highly efficient, motivated and harmonized and has constantly updated combat equipment. This will allow, if necessary, to double the actual number of our army without loss of combat effectiveness and other possible problems that we witnessed in the last war, conscripting unprepared people.

 

The above is not an exhaustive list at all, but even making it seem like a reality today seems a superhuman problem in the conditions of pessimism in Armenia, “peaceful” propaganda carried out by the current government and its satellites, frequent changes of army leadership, and constant force and psychological pressure by the enemy. . In spite of all this, however, in Armenia (including Artsakh), a new movement has been gradually formed over the past year, which includes current and former military, military, intellectuals, businessmen, public figures, many conscious and compassionate citizens who understand , that perhaps there is no real dignified alternative to the above and should be used every minute, every hour to restore our country’s military capabilities in this race with the enemy, regardless of all possible obstacles.

Our daily interactions with these people, our daily flesh-and-blood programs, and the already tough response of our army to the enemy’s aggression at the end of last year give reason to claim that all is not lost, that we can stand up, straighten our backs, and To defend the right to a peaceful, free and dignified life in our own country by the force of our arms and minds. After all, many other countries, such as Germany, France, Japan, and Korea, have come to terms with the heavy defeats they suffered in the wars, stood up, and restored their honor and dignity. Therefore, if we focus on a clear agenda, we can stop wasting our efforts on fighting and self-justification against the ghosts of the past, and instead encourage dedication, hard work, honesty and initiative to jointly restore the military-political power of our country. And the events taking place in Kazakhstan today, among others, come to remind that dictators are not eternal, and sooner or later they are brought down by their own peoples. We must also prepare for that day, and when the next historic opportunity opens, we must have enough strength and confidence to reaffirm our just rights.

Avetik Chalabyan is the co-founder of the ARAR Foundation.